Friday, 20 March 2015

Nigeria 2015 Elections Postponement and its Effects by Donald Inwalomhe. Part 2.

Already attention has been shifted away from core economic programmes to politics and campaign, bad enough, the 2015 budget is yet to be considered and approved by the National Assembly as a result of these activities. We are faced with worst scenario especially if the legislature decides to politicize its legislative assignments. The budget might end up not being passed until after the May 29th transition period. It is not pleasing that the President is currently financing the 2015 budget outside appropriation, considering the fact that the current exchange rate of the naira would make such expenses risky. What is most worrisome is that if the budget is not timely passed so as to become law, it would pose a great challenge for the incoming government to reconcile expenditure already made outside the budget and those approved from the budget. The effect of the election postponement has already suggested uncertainty in the economy, it has lowered investors confidence in the nation’s stock exchange. Foreign investors are already withdrawing their investment from the Nigerian stock exchange.

The process of implementing economic growth policies would be slow; since the incoming government will not be known until after March 28th. In the face of dwindling oil funds, this is certainly not the time for Nigeria to toy with any activities that would revamp its revenue profile; not even the 2015elections. In a special report titled ‘Nigeria: Postponed Polls: Protracted Uncertainty Weighs on Naira’, the international investment and financial advisory firm, Renaissance Capital said by postponing the election, the authorities have further exposed the weakness of the local currency in the face of continued depletion of the nation’s foreign reserves.

Besides, the postponement is in line with the provision in section 26 sub section one of the electoral act 2010 amended. Basically, the insecurity occasioned by the Boko Haram insurgents in Adamawa, Yobe and Borno States were among reasons why the security agents advised INEC for the postponement, saying that it cannot guarantee the security of voters, personnel and materials for the elections under the circumstance.

According to Prof. Jega under such circumstances, INEC had no option than to postpone the elections. However, INEC had been contending with the distribution of the Permanent Voter Cards (PVC), as millions of registered voters have been unable to collect their PVC as at the time of the announcement of the postponement by INEC Chairman, despite the extension of the collection exercise.

With the postponement of the elections due to insecurity in parts of the country, it therefore means that the Boko Haram insurgency which has been treated as a non issue by the military and Federal government has become a serious issue over night.

The postponement reminds Nigerians of the thankless role of the judiciary in the annulment of the 1993 general elections must necessarily become a warning in the light of the myriads of pre-election lawsuits currently pending in court ahead of the March 28 and April 11 polls. There are no fewer than five lawsuits seeking declaration that President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party is ineligible to stand re-election. As many as 10 separate suits are pending, wherein the court has been urged to disqualify the All Progressives Congress presidential candidate, Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd.) from the election.

Nigeria deserves this democracy, which, in the words of a prominent professor of Law and a Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Itse Sagay, has become the minimum standard for a civilised existence. Indeed, democracy has been equated to the most basic fundamental human right of a people.


Inwalomhe Donald, Researcher, Benin City, Nigeria. inwalomhe.donald@yahoo.com

Nigeria 2015 Elections Postponement and its Effects by Donald Inwalomhe. Part 1.

The Nigerian Presidential election rescheduled to 28 March has been beset by controversy. This special report for the Liberator blog is by Donald Inwalomhe, a journalists for several national Nigerian newspapers, who works with a network to monitor the elections, and has been warning for several years of the threat in the north posed by Boko Haram.

THE general election earlier scheduled in February, 2015 has been postponed by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC to March 28 (Presidential and national assembly) and April 11, (governorship and state assemblies) 2015, Announcing the postponement on Saturday 7th February, 2015 in a press briefing, the INEC Chairman, Prof. Attahiru Jega told Nigerians that the postponement was due to security report by the Service chiefs of the security agencies in Nigeria. The postponement is already having some cost implications on Nigerians. If not well managed, we might lose much of our economic projections for 2015 and further plunged into more hardship. With the postponement, various stakeholders have incurred several forms of loses.

Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau has vowed to disrupt Nigeria’s general election in a new video released recently, after several suicide attacks in the northeast blamed on the Islamists killed many people. In the ninth minutes of the video which lasted for 11 minutes 57 seconds, Shekau began to talk about Nigeria’s 2015 election, stating that, it will not hold in peace. “This election will not be held even if we are dead. Even if we are not alive Allah will never allow you to do it,” Shekau said in the Hausa language, presumably referring to the polls scheduled for March 28. The video appeared to be the first message released by the group on Twitter, a sign of its changing media tactics after previous messages were distributed to journalists on DVD. Shekau was shown in unusual clarity in front of a solid blue background, dressed in black and with an automatic weapon resting to his right.


The international and local observers had already counted their losses. The apprehension which might arise from the outcome of the February 14, 2015 elections also made companies to suspend major profitable ventures during the election period. Some traders closed their shops or rather refused to replace their stocks thereby recording low turnover. The political parties have deployed massive funds in all of the 36 states. However, with the six weeks extension, the political parties would need to continue the engagement process with their supporters in various cost-driven activities. More town hall meetings, rallies and air time would be paid as adverts in the electronic and print media. This extension would definitely be a cost burden on the small parties. The economy also has its own share in the cost of election postponement.

Monday, 16 March 2015

Election Preparations

The extraordinary public attack on Tim Farron and his judgment by the Liberal Democrats' General Election Chair Paddy Ashdown was viewed with raised eyebrows by those who remembered his desperate attempts to pursue "The Project" with Tony Blair in 1997-8.

This has quickly been followed by an orchestrated attack on Farron in today's Times [paywalled] after a pretty innocuous piece in the Mail on Sunday.  Meanwhile a lot of people have been working to generate publicity for Norman Lamb after the intrusive tabloid piece about his family members yesterday.

Lamb appears to have handled this very well, gaining momentum for his work to transform mental health care.  What Tim Farron hasn't said so far (but others can) is that perhaps Lord Ashdown's focus should be on voters in key areas, as Tim's is on his constituents; and that winning as many seats as possible on 7 May is perhaps more important.

After all, it does rather seem that the election preparations going on in some places are not being made with the General Election in mind.

Whoever authored the attack on the handling of the foreign affairs brief was not thinking of the leadership's judgment in staying almost entirely silent on international issues this Parliament; in forsaking Ministerial roles at the FCO and MOD; or indeed in appointing Tim Farron to the foreign affairs role.

Sunday, 1 March 2015

The half truths of apologists for Putin's agression in Ukraine.

After my article on Ukraine was published in February's Liberator 370, Liberal colleague Geoff Woodcock asked what I made of a review of a book in the Guardian on the Ukraine crisis.


'Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands by Richard Sakwa review – an unrivalled account' Jonathan Steele, 19 February 2015. http://www.theguardian.com/books/2015/feb/19/frontline-ukraine-crisis-in-borderlands-richard-sakwa-review-account?CMP=share_btn_link

The review appears to show a lot of the ideological and political assumptions behind it – for me it is typical of the more thought out excuses given by 'left wing' and 'right wing' commentators to make excuses for the Russian state's war in South East Ukraine.


I think many of the basic points in this review are correct. But as with most of the articles that are basically hostile to the Kyiv government and make excuses for the fighting in the East, it is very one sided. I don't know whether the book is like that but the review is. The war in two parts of SE Ukraine, and the terrorism in other cities, would not be happening without the Russian state fuelling it. It is not a civil war (as some commentators like to overstate it) or popular uprising, it is an orchestrated destruction of government control over a major industrial region. A Lib Dem commentator called Matthew Green wrote a blog on Putin / Ukraine recently where he detailed a Facebook argument with a critic of the Kyiv government. He made the point I've just repeated "This is interesting because it is largely accurate on the core facts." There is elements of truth in criticisms of the 'Ukrainian side' and certainly of how NATO / the EU and US have handled things, but all of this is used to wash over the fact that Putin's Russia is fuelling a war in a neighbouring country that is not what people in that country want.

Matthew Green's blog is here: http://thinkingliberal.co.uk/?p=1574 'How far will liberals go to defend their values? Putin poses the question.' I don't agree with all of it as it makes some of the kind of sweeping statements that the Putin apologists make on their side. In the Jonathan Steele review of Sakwa it is typical 'us against them' rhetoric.


I have always blamed Thatcher and Bush for the collapse in the former Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War, a great crime that they failed to support Mikhail Gorbachev with a Marshall Plan. I also think the expansion of NATO is ludicrous and that the EU failed to sufficiently take account of genuine Russian interests. But NATO, the US, the EU have not caused a war in Ukraine.


"Even today at this late stage, a declaration of Ukrainian non-alignment as part of an internationally negotiated settlement, and UN Security Council guarantees of that status, would bring instant de-escalation and make a lasting ceasefire possible in eastern Ukraine." This seems totally naïve as it involves trusting Vladimir Putin and you cannot trust Vladimir Putin. He has already breached such an agreement.


"Russia’s angry reaction to provocations in Georgia in 2008" means Russia's retaliatory punitive invasion of Georgia - provoked by Georgia but a grossly disproportionate response. "the EU has become little more than the civilian wing of the Atlantic alliance." is simply left wing ridiculous conspiracy nonsense. He (Steele or Sakwa) are entirely correct that crimes / war crimes committed against separatists supporters or on civilians by the Ukrainian army are not apparently acknowledged or investigated. That is appalling. I agree that there is this fictitious national myth by the Ukrainian state of some idealistic historic Ukrainian nation. A myth, a construct, like all the nation myths in Eastern and South Eastern Europe.


From my experience in a large Russian speaking city in the South East I entirely agree with this passage:


"The alternative “pluralist” view emphasises the different historical and cultural experiences of Ukraine’s various regions and argues that building a modern democratic post-Soviet Ukrainian state is not just a matter of good governance and rule of law at the centre. It also requires an acceptance of bilingualism, mutual tolerance of different traditions, and devolution of power to the regions."

Delivering this would not satisfy Putin and his agents though as their work appears to be to fundamentally undermine independent Ukrainian statehood. There are many reports of industrial plant and equipment from Donetsk and Luhansk being systematically dismantled and taken back to Russia. The voices of the million and a half displaced people (as many of them, maybe more to Russia as to other parts of Ukraine) and pro-Ukraine people in Donetsk and Luhansk are silenced by the mercenaries' take over of those regions.


Kiron Reid.


Tuesday, 17 February 2015

Liberator 370: out now!

Subscribers to Liberator should have received or be about to receive issue 370 of the radical liberal magazine Liberator.

Initial feedback has been strikingly positive.

Aside from the regular features including RB and Lord Bonkers' Diary, the magazine includes a range of perspectives on the coalition experience as it draws to a close.  Michael Meadowcroft gives an insiders' view on the life and leadership of Jeremy Thorpe which as Tony Greaves puts it 'is in itself worth the sub and a good counter to a lot of the spin and nonsense that has been written since he died about his leadership of the party.'  

And more - including a witty guide for candidates by Roger Hayes.

Take a look at the Commentary and find out more at our new website: http://liberatormagazine.org.uk/en/article/2015/1013289/less-of-the-same-commentary-liberator-370

Sunday, 21 December 2014

A mixed year: Lord Bonkers in 2014

January

A headline from a 1922 edition of the New York Times returned to prominence:

Three Englishmen Saved from Boiling Pot By Cannibal Chief, Who Was Friend at Oxford

At dinner one evening Lord Bonkers commented to me:
That is the great thing about public school and varsity: your friends will help you out in later life if you find yourself in hot water. 
Incidentally, too much is made of cannibalism in the South Pacific. In my experience of those lovely islands, it was rare. 
The same, unfortunately, cannot be said of the Upper Welland Valley.
That same month, Lord Bonkers took up his new role as the Liberal Democrats' new pastoral care officer. He wrote:
Reading from my early volume Frank Chats for Young Canvassers, I say: “Now that you are growing up, I expect you find yourselves doing things like cutting out photographs of Megan Lloyd George from the News Chronicle. 
Let me reassure you: there is nothing wrong with such feelings. However, it is important that we do not allow them to get in the way of our Liberal activism. So rise early, take a cold tub, exercise with Indian clubs and then, if you still find yourself troubled by impure thoughts, ask your branch secretary for an extra Focus round to deliver. I assure you that, after that, you will have no energy left for beastliness of any sort.”
March

His lordship acquired a new heroine:
At a reception this evening I find myself talking to a charming lady by the name of Miriam-Gonzalez-Durantez. She turns out to have trenchant views on the public schools. “Some people from some of these top schools are fantastic but there are lots of people from these top schools who are unimpressive,” she tells me. “Quite right, my dear,” I reply. She goes on: "I know far too many that come out of there without speaking a single foreign language." 
As I am observing that speaking a lot of languages isn’t everything and pointing to that fellow Clegg as a case in point, she suddenly recognises an old friend on the other side of the room and disappears from view. Nevertheless, I am convinced she is Sound. Why does one never hear her spoken of as a future leader of the Liberal Democrats?
April

The mysterious disappearance of a Malaysian jet put Lord Bonkers in mind of an incident from the 1920s:
One bright April morning the 11:15 for Northampton Castle left Nottingham London Road Lower Level as usual, but it never reached its destination. It was seen to call at Melton Mowbray North, and there were unconfirmed reports of it reaching Clipston and Oxendon, but one thing is sure: it never arrived in Northampton.
May

Despite Lord Bonkers' best efforts, the Liberal Democrats fared badly in the month's European elections. He is pictured here, during the campaign, with our East Midlands candidates Phil Knowles and George Smid:


Later that month Lord Bonkers gave his recollection of the death of T.E. Lawrence:
It later transpired that he died in a motorcycle accident after, uncharacteristically, swerving to avoid two schoolboys.
June

This months Lord Bonkers met Freddie and Fiona from Nick Clegg's office:
“We’ve been told to organise a press event in a pub this morning so that Mr Clegg and Vince Cable can have a drink together and show they are really best friends despite what everyone says,” they explain. “But the trouble is, we don’t know how to do it.” “Why ever not?” I ask. “Because we are too young to go into pubs.”
August

And he met them again a couple of month later:
They are taking turns with a bicycle pump, attempting to get some air into a large balloon that has had a collection of bristles stuck on it. “Whatever is that, you two?” I ask. “It’s an inflatable Julian Huppert,” they explain.
September 

Events in Cardiff attracted the old brute's attention this month:
I am delighted to read that the Welsh Liberal Democrats are proposing to abolish the trolls on the Severn Bridge. For many years I have been urging just this move upon them, but without any joy. “The time is not right,” said Mike German. “There are other priorities,” said Kirsty Williams. “Wibble, wibble: are both those feet mine?” said Lembit Opik.
December

We were treated to some memories of the glory days of Oakham Studios:
I helped win a contract from the Association of Liberal Councillors to make a number of training films. More than one prominent member of our party learnt electioneering from watching ‘Confessions from a Committee Room.’ ‘Confessions of a Canvasser’ and ‘Confessions of a Knocker Up’.
And Lord Bonkers also offered some thoughts on (I think) the fall of Alastair Cook:
One has to be prepared to act decisively. For a leader who impressed people only a few years ago may no longer cut the mustard today.
Finally, he has asked me to assure you that there is no truth to the absurd rumours currently circulating about the financial position of the Bonkers Hall Estate.

Lord Bonkers' literary secretary blogs at Liberal England.

Monday, 8 December 2014

New website

Due to circumstances beyond our control, the Liberator website has gone down and will take some time to recover.

Meanwhile please redirect your browsers to our current home at http://liberatormagazine.org.uk/en/.

Thursday, 9 October 2014

The Federal Executive: Recovering from Omnishambles

Mark Pack at http://www.markpack.org.uk/75271/five-things-federal-executive-learn-mistakes/ has written a typically perceptive account of the travails of the Liberal Democrats' Federal Executive, which had a pretty torrid Conference.  He makes a number of suggestions as to how relations could be mended.

Rounding off the omnishambles was the declaration twice from the podium that the FE wanted to use the final pre-election conference in Spring not to promote Liberal Democrat policy commitments in the Manifesto, but to indulge in internal navelgazing by returning to the two sets of constitutional amendments it should have put to Glasgow Conference - but failed to; as well as the interim peers proposals which Conference Committee didn't take for debate at Glasgow, as debating who should go into the House of Lords wouldn't have had any effect on this autumn's elections but would have looked strange to the outside world when so many of the party's Commons seats are reportedly under pressure.  It would say something about the priorities of the current committee if they do decide to proceed with this rather than wait until the post-election conference at Liverpool, where there will be ample time for more introspective discussion.

Into the mix should also be thrown the Federal Finance and Administration Committee (FFAC): unelected but powerful, and particularly opaque.

As elections for Executive and President draw near, it focuses attention on three things.
1. The listening mode.  Individually many members of the FE are good at listening, but this is not reflected collectively.  Dissident voices never seem to make themselves known within the wider party.  This does not help the FE's image.  Both recent gaffes (on OMOV and gender quotas) where the committee failed for various reasons to heed advice, are results of this.
2. The purpose of the FE itself.  Gordon Lishman said from the podium that the gender quotas decision - arguably illegal - was rushed through after the guillotine at the end of a long meeting without debate.  How many of the earlier items were essential?  It has a long track record of discussing trivia while not focusing on key issues of strategy which is what it is supposed to be about.  As Mark says, even its own members seem to be unaware of some decisions taken in their name.
3. Mend fences where necessary.  This should go without saying.

The questions to be asked of candidates for FE and President - and their responses - will be important.  You can of course read questionnaires with the latter in the latest Liberator.

Thursday, 2 October 2014

Constitutional Farce

It appears that the Federal Executive has caught itself with its constitutional trousers down, as is about to become apparent in some form in Glasgow.

In a rather desperate attempt to evade the <a href="http://www.markpack.org.uk/68347/omov-the-fe-has-submitted-a-mess-to-conference-so-lets-sort-it-out/">technical reference back set out by Mark Pack</a>, who has set out in the same post the shortcomings of the proposals, the FE has submitted a lengthy set of further amendments to the constitution and Standing Orders.  They make for interesting reading, partly as they contravene the Party's constitution by introducing new material, and partly because they fail to deal with some of the key shortcomings of the original proposals.

The Federal Conference Committee might have something interesting to say about the amendments to standing orders..... especially as the committee was not shown them in the first place.  Had they seen them, FCC members would have thrown them out on grounds that they were incomplete, contradictory and ambiguous.  As it is,  it’s surely not acceptable for the movers to rewrite their own motions so extensively - which of course, among other things means that conference can’t amend the new material the FE introduce through their amendments.